Sep 2, 2011

Modeling Decline Using Greek Philosophers

Image source: Cassandra's Legacy

A simple model that explains quite a bit. The author concludes,

" . . . the Seneca effect will be the result of trying hard to keep things running as usual. In that way, we may run out faster of the resource that keeps the system running: be it a physical resource or a reserve of goodwill. The way to avoid this outcome may be to let the system run the way it wants, without attempting to force it to go the way we want it to go. In other words we need to take things in life with some stoicism, as Seneca himself would probably have said."

What's even more interesting, is that collecting new sources of oil (tar sands, off-shore drilling, "drill baby drill") will increase the rate of decline.

"We should try, instead, to develop alternative stocks of resources such as renewable (or nuclear) energy. At the same time, we should avoid to exploit highly polluting and expensive resources such as tar sands, oil shales, deepwater oil, and, in general, applying the "drill, baby, drill" philosophy. All those strategies are recipes for doom. Unfortunately, these are also examples of exactly what we are doing."

Well worth a read.

No comments: